Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4104 LANDED 6:31 PM MT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4104 · AUS → ELP

took off 6:20 PM CT · landed 6:31 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

ELP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4104 · AUS → ELP

Odds over time