Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4124
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4124 · BNA → SMF
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 3:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.