Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4127
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4127 · MEM → DAL
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.11 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.