Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4139 · STL → MCO
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.