Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4139 LANDED 7:39 AM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4139 · TPA → AUS

took off 6:35 AM ET · landed 7:39 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4139 · TPA → AUS

Odds over time