Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4180
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4180 · BOS → BWI
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.