Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4181 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

WN 4181 · TPA → MHT

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MHT?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

MHT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4181 · TPA → MHT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHT?