Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 41
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 41 · TPA → TYS
departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at TYS that day
↑
Arrivals into TYS at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.