Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4204 · TUL → HOU
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.