WN 4210 · TUS → DEN

took off 7:22 AM MT · expected to land 9:45 AM MT (scheduled 7:02 AM MT → 10:07 AM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4210 · TUS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?