Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4211 · MDW → PIT
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.