Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4218
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4218 · VPS → MCI
departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at VPS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.