Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4221 · TPA → ALB
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
ALB usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ALB
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
ALB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.