Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4240 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4240 · LGB → BZN

departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4240 · LGB → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?