WN 4246 · SAN → SMF

took off 12:31 PM PT · landed 1:37 PM PT (scheduled 10:21 AM PT → 12:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4246 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?