Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 424 · BUR → STS
departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 11:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from BUR are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.