Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4257 · DAL → MCI
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.