Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4261 · SJC → SAN
departs 8:10 AM PT · arrives 9:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from SJC are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.