WN 4265 · BNA → TUL

took off 8:12 PM CT · landed 9:30 PM CT (scheduled 8:04 PM CT → 9:55 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4265 · BNA → TUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to TUL?