Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4272 LANDED 9:06 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4272 · SAN → SMF

took off 7:59 PM PT · landed 9:06 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4272 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time