Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4273
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4273 · LAS → PDX
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.