Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4288
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4288 · SAT → LAS
departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 12:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.38 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.