Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4299 LANDED 1:07 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4299 · JAX → STL

took off 12:21 PM ET · landed 1:07 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip3.92 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4299 · JAX → STL

Odds over time