Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4302
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4302 · DEN → BWI
departs 3:30 PM MT · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.