Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 434 · DAL → BNA
departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 12:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.