Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4351
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4351 · MDW → PHL
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.