Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 435
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 435 · DAL → MSY
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
9pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.81 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.