Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4406 · ALB → TPA
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ALB
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.