Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4409 LANDED 5:15 PM MT, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4409 · OAK → DEN

took off 2:10 PM PT · landed 5:15 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4409 · OAK → DEN

Odds over time