Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4417 · PIT → BWI
departs 5:50 AM ET · arrives 7:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from PIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.