Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4428 · BNA → MCO
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.