Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4436 LANDED 8:28 PM CT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4436 · PHX → HOU

took off 4:21 PM MT · landed 8:28 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4436 · PHX → HOU

Odds over time