Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4439 LANDED 8:44 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4439 · RDU → AUS

took off 7:06 AM ET · landed 8:44 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4439 · RDU → AUS

Odds over time