WN 4440 · SAN → BOS

departs 11:41 AM PT · arrives 8:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4440 · SAN → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?