Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4453 LANDED 10:16 AM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4453 · TPA → SAT

took off 8:54 AM ET · landed 10:16 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4453 · TPA → SAT

Odds over time