Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4457 · MCI → SAN
departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.