Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4462 · MCO → BWI
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +35 pts in 24h
+35 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.