Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4466 · BNA → SDF
departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at BNA that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
9am departures from BNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.