WN 4486 · SAN → AUS

took off 11:27 AM PT · landed 3:51 PM CT (scheduled 10:16 AM PT → 3:13 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4486 · SAN → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?