Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4502 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

WN 4502 · LAS → SNA

departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 2:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4502 · LAS → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?