WN 4517 · SLC → OAK

took off 5:38 PM MT · landed 5:59 PM PT (scheduled 5:13 PM MT → 6:13 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4517 · SLC → OAK

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAK?