Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4530 · MCO → STL
departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.