Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4538 · SAN → SMF
departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.