WN 4557 · DAL → MCO

departs 7:32 PM CT · arrives 11:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ 7pm departures from DAL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.37 in

MCO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4557 · DAL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?