Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4559 LANDED 9:35 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4559 · TPA → RDU

took off 8:13 AM ET · landed 9:35 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4559 · TPA → RDU

Odds over time