Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4564 · PIT → MCO
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.