WN 456 · BNA → MCO

departs 12:44 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 456 · BNA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?