Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4578 LANDED 12:36 AM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4578 · AUS → LAS

took off 12:15 AM CT · landed 12:36 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4578 · AUS → LAS

Odds over time