Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4582 · SAT → ELP
departs 9:25 AM CT · arrives 9:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
9am departures from SAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.15 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.