Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4609 · RSW → BWI
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from RSW are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.